Human Conflict Project

All events · Cold War Proxies

First Nagorno-Karabakh War

1988–1994 · Balkans, Anatolia & the Caucasus

Displacement Territory Seized Mass Killing
Displaced
1 million
roughly 1 million total: an estimated 600,000-800,000 Azerbaijanis displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts, and roughly 300,000-400,000 Armenians who fled Azerbaijan proper, including after pogroms in Sumgait (1988) and Baku (1990)
Share of the population affected
9.7%
of the combined population of Soviet Azerbaijan and Soviet Armenia at the 1989 census, the two republics between which the population was exchanged, 1989
Killed
18,500–30,000
conflict deaths incl. combatants
Territory
11,900 km²
Nagorno-Karabakh (about 4,400 km²) plus seven surrounding Azerbaijani districts (about 7,500-9,200 km²), placed under Armenian/Karabakh Armenian control after the war

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What happened

As the Soviet Union weakened, the predominantly ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast sought to join Armenia, triggering pogroms against Armenians in Azerbaijani cities and full-scale war after both republics gained independence in 1991. Armenian and Karabakh Armenian forces, with Armenian state backing, took control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani districts by the 1994 Bishkek ceasefire, displacing roughly 600,000-800,000 Azerbaijanis, while some 300,000-400,000 Armenians fled or were expelled from Azerbaijan proper. The unrecognized 'Republic of Artsakh' was established in the captured territory, and the conflict remained frozen for over two decades.

Parties

Armenian and ethnic Armenian Karabakh forces, backed by Armenia, fought Azerbaijani forces over the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts as the Soviet Union collapsed

Disputed

Armenia and Karabakh Armenians framed the war as an exercise of self-determination; Azerbaijan and four UN Security Council resolutions (822, 853, 874, 884) characterized Armenian control of the seven surrounding districts as occupation of internationally recognized Azerbaijani territory; no state recognized Nagorno-Karabakh's independence.

The denominator

The 1989 all-Union census counted 7,021,178 in the Azerbaijan SSR and 3,304,776 in the Armenian SSR, with 189,000 people in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, about three quarters of them Armenian. Displacement ran both ways: roughly 600,000 Azerbaijani internally displaced from Karabakh and the occupied districts, about 185,000-200,000 Azerbaijanis expelled from Armenia and about 300,000-350,000 Armenians from Azerbaijan proper.

The numerator sums displacement in both directions across two states, so no single national population is the right denominator; against Azerbaijan alone the Azerbaijani share of displaced was about 11 per cent, and against Armenia the Armenian share was proportionally higher.

Where the baseline comes from

On the death toll

The International Crisis Group's field study put total deaths 'in the neighbourhood of 18,500', explicitly revising downward earlier claims of 18,000–20,000 Azerbaijani and at least 25,000 Armenian dead; figures of 20,000–30,000 remain in wide circulation in Armenian and Azerbaijani official and journalistic accounts, and both governments have incentives to emphasise their own losses. Crisis Group counts roughly 413,000 Armenians and 724,000 Azerbaijanis and Kurds displaced.

Documented forms of violence

Mass KillingDestruction of Property

A CEPS study of the conflict records the February 1988 Sumgait pogrom against Armenians and the February 1992 Khojaly massacre of at least 485 Azerbaijani civilians fleeing the town, and the European Court of Human Rights in Chiragov and Sargsyan (2015) found continuing denial of access to abandoned homes and property on both sides.

Formal findings

Movements mapped

Countries touched, on present-day borders

Azerbaijan, Armenia

Sources

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