Human Conflict Project

All events · The Long Emergencies

South Sudan Independence and Civil War

2011–2020 · Sub-Saharan Africa

Displacement Territory Seized Mass Killing Sexual Violence
Displaced
4 million
the 2013-2020 civil war displaced about 4 million people, including roughly 2.2 million refugees in neighboring countries and 1.8 million internally displaced; an estimated 190,000-380,000 people died
Share of the population affected
38%
of the population of South Sudan at independence, 2011
Killed
190,000–400,000
excess mortality incl. disease and starvation
Territory
644,000 km²
South Sudan (about 644,000 km2) became Africa's newest state after seceding from Sudan in July 2011; the oil-rich Abyei area straddling the border remains disputed, administered under interim arrangements pending an unresolved final status referendum

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What happened

South Sudan became independent from Sudan in July 2011 following a 2005 peace agreement and a near-unanimous 2011 referendum, but the disputed, oil-producing Abyei border area was left unresolved, with a promised referendum there never held. In December 2013, a political and military split between President Salva Kiir (Dinka) and former Vice President Riek Machar (Nuer) escalated into a civil war marked by ethnically targeted violence; a 2018 peace deal and unity government only partially stemmed the fighting. The war displaced roughly 4 million people, including about 2.2 million refugees in Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and elsewhere and 1.8 million internally displaced, with death toll estimates ranging from about 190,000 to 380,000. A UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan documented widespread atrocities, including ethnically targeted killings and sexual violence, by multiple armed actors.

Parties

South Sudan seceded from Sudan in 2011 after a referendum; a 2013 power struggle between President Salva Kiir and former Vice President Riek Machar's forces triggered a civil war fought largely along ethnic lines

Disputed

Death toll estimates for the 2013-2020 civil war vary considerably, from roughly 190,000 (battle-related) to a widely cited 380,000 including indirect deaths; the legal status of Abyei remains unresolved between Sudan and South Sudan.

The denominator

The 2008 Sudanese census counted 8.26 million people in the southern states, a figure the Juba authorities rejected as a substantial undercount; UN estimates put South Sudan at about 10.3-10.5 million at independence in 2011. At the peak of the civil war some 2.3 million people were refugees, chiefly in Uganda, Sudan and Ethiopia, and about 1.9 million were displaced internally, with roughly 200,000 sheltering in UN protection-of-civilians sites.

The total combines refugees and internally displaced people over seven years and includes repeated displacements of the same families, so it is not a count of distinct individuals.

Where the baseline comes from

On the death toll

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine's 2018 statistical study estimated roughly 383,000 excess deaths between December 2013 and April 2018 — widely reported as about 400,000 — of which around half, some 190,000, were violent deaths, the remainder attributable to disease and hunger caused by the conflict. The headline figure is frequently misquoted as the number of people 'killed', which the study's own decomposition does not support. More than 4 million people were displaced, about 2.5 million of them across borders.

Documented forms of violence

Mass KillingSexual ViolenceStarvation and SiegeDestruction of Property

The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan and UNMISS documented ethnically targeted massacres such as the December 2013 killings of Nuer civilians in Juba and the 2014 Bentiu massacre of more than 400 people, conflict-related sexual violence used systematically, and the obstruction of aid and destruction of villages that drove the LSHTM-measured excess mortality.

Formal findings

Movements mapped

Countries touched, on present-day borders

S. Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan

Sources

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